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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch and Roda finished level at 2-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.49 xG and Roda 1.63 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 25% | Roda 40%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, Roda 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.38 PPG, Roda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights