Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Den Bosch (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Den Bosch have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Den Bosch: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Jong Utrecht, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Den Bosch a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 74% and Jong Utrecht 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 68% | Jong Utrecht 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.25 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.962 / defence 1.109 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.944 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.584. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Den Bosch games / 50 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 29%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Utrecht 3.45. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | Jong Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Den Bosch 2.25 / Jong Utrecht 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.962 / def 1.109 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.944 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 5W | Draws 3 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.95
20%
4.95
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.90
1.66
Jong Utrecht xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
11%
9.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.66 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 12D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.06 PPG from 50 outings (14W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.26 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 9D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.54 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.44 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 84%, Jong Utrecht at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 60% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Den Bosch's games and 64% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.