Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Jong PSV U21 haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.00 for Jong PSV U21. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Den Bosch 5W, Jong PSV U21 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and Jong PSV U21 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 71% | Jong PSV U21 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.69 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.952 / defence 0.993 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.010 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Den Bosch games / 38 Jong PSV U21 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 32%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Jong PSV U21 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 80% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.69 / Jong PSV U21 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.952 / def 0.993 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.010 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 44% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 5W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.01x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.25
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.12
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.43 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 17W 5D 16L across 38 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. Jong PSV U21 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.47 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 7W 2D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.74 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
Jong PSV U21
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 5D 16L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.33 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Den Bosch, 72% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Den Bosch and 72% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Den Bosch's games and 72% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Den Bosch's matches and 72% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.