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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Jong PSV U21 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.06 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.21 / defence 1.23, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 45% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, Jong PSV U21 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.35 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights