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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.57 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.21 PPG, FC Volendam 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights