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Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 5-2 hammering of FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat FC OSS 5-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.46 xG and FC OSS 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 52% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 21%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 50%, FC OSS 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

FC OSS's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights