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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out FC OSS 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat FC OSS 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.58 xG and FC OSS 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against FC OSS attack 0.62 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights