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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven finished level at 2-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.57 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.51 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.25 / defence 1.02, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 39% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, FC Eindhoven 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.17 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights