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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 25, as Den Bosch and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.25 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Emmen attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 60% | Draw 21% | Emmen 19%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.33 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights