Den Bosch 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 37 as Den Bosch welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.30 PPG, Emmen 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Den Bosch.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 64% | Emmen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.56 xG and Emmen 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.745 / defence 1.319 | Emmen attack 1.031 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Den Bosch games / 36 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | Emmen 44%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | Emmen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 1.56 / Emmen 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.745 / def 1.319 | Emmen attack 1.031 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Emmen xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Emmen kick off?
Den Bosch vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Den Bosch vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Emmen part of?
Den Bosch vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 31% chance of winning, Emmen a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.74) and Emmen's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
31%
3.20
25%
4.06
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.42
1.87
Emmen xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
5%
20.71
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.87 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 74 games, going 18W 14D 42L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.15 PPG from 74 outings (23W 16D 35L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.92 PPG, Emmen on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 9D 18L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (10W 5D 22L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.01 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.26 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 14D 42L in their last 74 games (0.92 PPG), while Emmen have gone 23W 16D 35L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Emmen away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.05 PPG; Emmen away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 62%, Emmen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Den Bosch and 70% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games; Emmen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 65% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Den Bosch's matches and 70% of Emmen's.
Do Den Bosch and Emmen tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Emmen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Den Bosch 1-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.56 xG and Emmen 1.87 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against Emmen attack 1.03 / defence 1.27, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | Emmen 44%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 64%, Emmen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.92 PPG, Emmen 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.