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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 5, as Den Bosch and Dordrecht drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.27 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Dordrecht attack 1.09 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 51%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Dordrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.47 PPG, Dordrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights