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Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 1-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.49 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

De Graafschap's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.46 PPG, De Graafschap 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights