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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Den Bosch 0-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.24 xG and Cambuur 1.49 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against Cambuur attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 31% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 42%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambuur's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.15 PPG, Cambuur 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights