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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Den Bosch 2-3 at De Vliert, Round of 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 1.64 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.24, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 34%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Almere City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.31 PPG, Almere City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights