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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 1-3 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.06 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.38 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.70, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights