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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out VVV Venlo 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.96 xG and VVV Venlo 1.07 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against VVV Venlo attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights