De Graafschap 3-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VVV Venlo have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, VVV Venlo have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for De Graafschap.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Jan 2024, ended De Graafschap 3–0 VVV Venlo — a De Graafschap win.
The H2H data backs the away side. VVV Venlo have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 65% versus VVV Venlo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 72% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.89 xG and VVV Venlo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.510 / defence 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.388. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack rating of 1.510 — their 2.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. VVV Venlo's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing De Graafschap's projected output up. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 54 games and VVV Venlo's last 54.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.35 | Draw 6.59 | VVV Venlo 9.50. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (74%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.89 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but De Graafschap carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 80% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG De Graafschap 2.89 / VVV Venlo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.510 / def 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 0.810 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.06
VVV Venlo xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 74% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.89. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 54 games and VVV Venlo's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.59
11%
9.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.96
1.06
VVV Venlo xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.59
15%
Draw
9.50
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
6%
18.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
171.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.06 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 26W 11D 17L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 11D 27L from 54 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 26 home games (17W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 7D 14L from their last 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.22 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 26W 11D 17L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.12 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won De Graafschap 3-0 VVV Venlo.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, VVV Venlo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 58% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of De Graafschap's games and 46% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 58% of VVV Venlo's.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 85% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 3-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.89 xG and VVV Venlo 1.06 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.51 / defence 0.95 against VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 74% | Draw 15% | VVV Venlo 11%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 72%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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