De Graafschap vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 0.90 PPG versus Roda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Roda in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 75% and Roda 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 68% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.34 xG and Roda 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Roda attack 0.844 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Roda's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 22% | Roda 53%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Roda 1.89. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 22% | Roda 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG De Graafschap 1.34 / Roda 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Roda attack 0.844 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Roda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 26% chance of winning, Roda a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Roda 5W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
26%
3.91
22%
4.62
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.34
2.00
Roda xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
3%
28.96
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.00 for Roda, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 11D 15L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.45 PPG from 44 outings (16W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.48 PPG, Roda on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 10W 4D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.82 points per game from 22 outings (11W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.50 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Roda in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.55 PPG; Roda away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 77%, Roda at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 64% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of De Graafschap's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Roda's.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.