De Graafschap 3-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees MVV travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
MVV's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, MVV 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 1 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
MVV trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 56% and MVV 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 60% | MVV 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.04 xG and MVV 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.146 / defence 0.915 | MVV attack 1.087 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Data: 73 De Graafschap games / 73 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 23% | MVV 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | MVV 4.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | MVV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 23% | MVV 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 2.04 / MVV 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.146 / def 0.915 | MVV attack 1.087 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.39
MVV xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs MVV kick off?
De Graafschap vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
De Graafschap 3 - 0 MVV.
Where is De Graafschap vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs MVV part of?
De Graafschap vs MVV is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, MVV a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | MVV 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.15) and MVV's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.39
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.43
1.39
MVV xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
3%
30.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.39 for MVV, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 33W 12D 28L from 73 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 31W 13D 29L across 73 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.52 PPG, MVV on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 20W 5D 11L from 36 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 12W 5D 19L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.66 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 64%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and MVV in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 33W 12D 28L in their last 73 games (1.52 PPG), while MVV have gone 31W 13D 29L in their last 73 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or MVV away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.81 PPG; MVV away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
4
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and MVV?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 47%, MVV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for De Graafschap and 75% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of De Graafschap's games and 64% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of De Graafschap's matches and 75% of MVV's.
Do De Graafschap and MVV tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, MVV in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat MVV 3-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.04 xG and MVV 1.39 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 23% | MVV 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, MVV 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.52 PPG, MVV 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.