De Graafschap 2-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 62% versus Jong Utrecht 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 68% | Jong Utrecht 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.17 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.267 / defence 1.142 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.910 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.319. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 De Graafschap games / 40 Jong Utrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG De Graafschap 2.17 / Jong Utrecht 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.267 / def 1.142 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.910 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Jong Utrecht xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 3 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.27x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.37
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.54
1.37
Jong Utrecht xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
3%
39.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.37 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 19W 6D 15L from 40 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 5W 12D 23L across 40 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 12W 3D 5L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 1W 5D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.82 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 6D 15L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 12D 23L in their last 40 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.95 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
5
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 60%, Jong Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for De Graafschap and 65% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 55% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 3, as De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.17 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.37 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.27 / defence 1.14 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 55% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, Jong Utrecht 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.