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Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.97 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.31 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 36% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 43%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights