De Graafschap vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 2D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, De Graafschap are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.55 xG and FC OSS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.870 / defence 1.054 | FC OSS attack 0.597 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.828 / away 1.579. Data: 51 De Graafschap games / 51 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 50% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 4.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 80% | FC OSS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 50% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG De Graafschap 1.55 / FC OSS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.870 / def 1.054 | FC OSS attack 0.597 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.828 / away 1.579 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC OSS xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 50% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 7W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.87) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.60x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.92
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.54
0.99
FC OSS xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
19.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.99 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 51 games, going 21W 13D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.12 PPG from 51 outings (15W 12D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.12 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 11W 5D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.43 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 12D 24L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.52 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 60% for FC OSS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (De Graafschap) and 44% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 60% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of De Graafschap's matches and 44% of FC OSS's.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.