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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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De Graafschap and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.21 xG and FC OSS 1.56 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against FC OSS attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights