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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Cambuur and Willem II drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.18 xG and Willem II 0.82 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 68% | Draw 19% | Willem II 13%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 45%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights