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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat VVV Venlo 3-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.77 xG and VVV Venlo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against VVV Venlo attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 55% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 44%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights