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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Vitesse 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Vitesse 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.31 xG and Vitesse 1.52 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Vitesse attack 1.14 / defence 0.74, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 33% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 42%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Vitesse's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights