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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Telstar 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Telstar 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.44 xG and Telstar 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 47% | Draw 27% | Telstar 26%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, Telstar 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.39 PPG, Telstar 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights