🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambuur and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 31, as Cambuur and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.73 xG and Roda 1.27 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.14 / defence 0.76 against Roda attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 48% | Draw 25% | Roda 28%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Roda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Roda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights