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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 4-0 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat MVV 4-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.27 xG and MVV 0.92 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.16 / defence 0.73 against MVV attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 68% | Draw 18% | MVV 14%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 48%, MVV 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

MVV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights