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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out MVV 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat MVV 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.96 xG and MVV 0.78 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against MVV attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 65% | Draw 21% | MVV 14%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, MVV 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.53 PPG, MVV 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights