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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.91 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.04 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 57% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 20%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Jong Utrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights