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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.50 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.74 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 76% | Draw 16% | Jong Utrecht 9%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 61%, Jong Utrecht 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights