Cambuur 2-4 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Cambuur have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jong Utrecht away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cambuur's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Cambuur 2–3 Jong Utrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 59% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | Jong Utrecht 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.201 / defence 1.464 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.668 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.464 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Utrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 24 games and Jong Utrecht's last 63.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.65 | Draw 4.79 | Jong Utrecht 5.45. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 90% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Cambuur 2.37 / Jong Utrecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.201 / def 1.464 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.668 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jong Utrecht xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur 2 - 4 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 61% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.20x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.67x) against Cambuur's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 24 games and Jong Utrecht's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.79
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.64
1.27
Jong Utrecht xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
58.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.27 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 10D 33L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 11W 14D 33L from 58 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Cambuur against 0.81 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.97 PPG from their last 29 home games (8W 4D 17L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 5D 22L from their last 29 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Cambuur (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 33L in their last 58 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 14D 33L in their last 58 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.97 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won Jong Utrecht 0-4 Cambuur on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 55%, Jong Utrecht 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Cambuur and 59% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 34% of games; Jong Utrecht in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and Jong Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cambuur's recent matches and 48% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Cambuur's matches and 59% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Cambuur's recent matches and 79% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Cambuur 2-4 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.27 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.20 / defence 1.46 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, Jong Utrecht 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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