Cambuur 2-4 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cambuur Stadion — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cambuur's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 59% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | Jong Utrecht 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.201 / defence 1.464 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.668 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Data: 24 Cambuur games / 63 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | Jong Utrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 2.37 / Jong Utrecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.201 / def 1.464 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.668 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jong Utrecht xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur 2 - 4 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 61% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.20x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.67x) against Cambuur's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 24/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.79
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.64
1.27
Jong Utrecht xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
58.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.27 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 10D 33L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 11W 14D 33L from 58 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Cambuur against 0.81 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.97 PPG from 29 outings (8W 4D 17L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 5D 22L from 29 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 33L in their last 58 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 14D 33L in their last 58 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.97 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Jong Utrecht?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 55%, Jong Utrecht 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Cambuur and 59% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 34% of games; Jong Utrecht in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cambuur's recent matches and 48% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Cambuur's matches and 59% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Cambuur 2-4 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.27 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.20 / defence 1.46 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 61% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 18%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, Jong Utrecht 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.