🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Cambuur 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Cambuur 3-4 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.89 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.75 against Jong AZ attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 50% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 27%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 50%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights