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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Cambuur 0-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.41 xG and Jong AZ 0.95 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Jong AZ attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 46% | Draw 31% | Jong AZ 23%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 63%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.39 PPG, Jong AZ 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights