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Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong Ajax 4-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.51 xG and Jong Ajax 1.21 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.26 / defence 0.97 against Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 66% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 17%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, Jong Ajax 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights