🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambuur and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.34 xG and FC OSS 0.64 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against FC OSS attack 0.55 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 17%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights