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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Emmen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Emmen 3-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.29 xG and Emmen 1.15 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Emmen attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 63% | Draw 19% | Emmen 18%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights