Cambuur 1-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Emmen at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Emmen meet at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Emmen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cambuur, 1.20 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Emmen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Emmen — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 67% and Emmen 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 64% | Emmen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.88 xG and Emmen 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.679 / defence 0.865 | Emmen attack 0.869 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.434. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Cambuur games / 45 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 27% | Draw 36% | Emmen 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Emmen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 50% | Emmen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 27% | Draw 36% | Emmen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Cambuur 0.88 / Emmen 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.679 / def 0.865 | Emmen attack 0.869 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Emmen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Emmen xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Emmen kick off?
Cambuur vs Emmen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Emmen?
Cambuur 1 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Cambuur vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Emmen part of?
Cambuur vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 27% chance of winning, Emmen a 37% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cambuur and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 2 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Emmen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cambuur vs Emmen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.68x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.87x) against Cambuur's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
27%
3.73
36%
2.79
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cambuur xG
Total xG
1.96
1.08
Emmen xG
3.73
27%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.08 for Emmen, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 15W 9D 21L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 19W 8D 18L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Cambuur against 1.44 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.42 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Emmen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Emmen have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.14 PPG; Emmen away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cambuur
2
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Emmen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Emmen 2-4 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Cambuur, 59% for Emmen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Cambuur and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cambuur's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Cambuur's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do Cambuur and Emmen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Emmen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Cambuur 1-3 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.88 xG and Emmen 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.68 / defence 0.86 against Emmen attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 27% | Draw 36% | Emmen 37%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 64%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.20 PPG, Emmen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.