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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Dordrecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.62 xG and Dordrecht 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Dordrecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 50% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 60%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.48 PPG, Dordrecht 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights