🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.03 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 30%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

De Graafschap's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.88 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights