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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out De Graafschap 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat De Graafschap 3-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.44 xG and De Graafschap 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.97 / defence 0.79 against De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 59%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.48 PPG, De Graafschap 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights