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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ADO Den Haag.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.84 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.01 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.49 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 36% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 43%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 50%, ADO Den Haag 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.91 PPG, ADO Den Haag 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights