Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.76x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.23x) against Cambuur's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.61
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.74
1.58
ADO Den Haag xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
18.21
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.58 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.