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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out FC OSS 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat FC OSS 3-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.68 xG and FC OSS 1.09 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against FC OSS attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.10 PPG, FC OSS 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights