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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Emmen 4-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.13 xG and Emmen 1.25 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Emmen attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 58% | Draw 21% | Emmen 22%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 57%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights