Almere City FC vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.10 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Den Bosch in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 68% and Den Bosch 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 75% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.04 xG and Den Bosch 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.094 / defence 0.984 | Den Bosch attack 1.062 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Almere City FC games / 38 Den Bosch games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 28%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 3.57. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Almere City FC 2.04 / Den Bosch 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.094 / def 0.984 | Den Bosch attack 1.062 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Den Bosch xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 51% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Record (8 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.09) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.06x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
51%
1.97
21%
4.68
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.53
1.49
Den Bosch xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
4%
27.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.49 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 5D 15L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (14W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.27 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 3D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.68 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 75%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 20W 5D 15L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Almere City FC 3-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for Almere City FC, 75% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almere City FC and 80% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Almere City FC's games and 75% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almere City FC's matches and 80% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.