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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Roda 4-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.30 xG and Roda 1.25 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.37 / defence 0.79 against Roda attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 61% | Draw 19% | Roda 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 64%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights