ADO Den Haag vs MVV – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — MVV's attack (1.03x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.94
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.18
1.34
MVV xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.34 for MVV, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.