ADO Den Haag 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Bingoal Stadion to face ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for ADO Den Haag, 0.40 for Jong Utrecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Utrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours ADO Den Haag, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 73% and Jong Utrecht 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 69% | Jong Utrecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.51 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.842 / defence 1.162 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.023 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.408. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 ADO Den Haag games / 45 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 33% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 40%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Jong Utrecht 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 33% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.51 / Jong Utrecht 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.842 / def 1.162 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.023 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Jong Utrecht xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 33% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht?
Record (6 meetings): ADO Den Haag 3W | Draws 3 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (1.02x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.80
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.18
1.67
Jong Utrecht xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.67 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 17W 16D 12L from 45 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 5W 13D 27L across 45 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 1W 6D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.84 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 16D 12L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 13D 27L in their last 45 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong Utrecht away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.45 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 6-0 on 27 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
6
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for ADO Den Haag, 59% for Jong Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ADO Den Haag and 68% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ADO Den Haag's games and 59% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 68% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.51 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.67 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 33% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 40%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 69%, Jong Utrecht 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.